Is the US ever gonna get out of debt?
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.
Economists at the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate that financial markets cannot sustain more than twenty additional years of deficits. At that point, they argue, no amount of tax increases or spending cuts would suffice to avert a devastating default.
Currently the nation's $34 trillion debt is approximately 99% of GDP and, according to the CBO, will steadily increase over the next 30 years. In the near term, the CBO expects debt as a percentage of GDP to exceed the record peak of the Second World War by 2029.
By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!
It ultimately comes down to the U.S. taxpayers. That means in order to pay it off, or at least make a larger dent in the debt, the federal government would have to raise taxes and cut spending.
Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.
Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt. Comparing a country's debt to its gross domestic product (GDP) reveals the country's ability to pay down its debt.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
- Japan. $1,098.2. 14.52%
- China. $769.6. 10.17%
- United Kingdom. $693. 9.16%
- Luxembourg. $345.4. 4.57%
- Cayman Islands. $323.8. 4.28%
What happens if US debt gets too high?
Decreased savings and income
The private sector will stop seeking investments that can generate growth due to the incentive to save. This includes the lower amount of capital available once individuals stop investing in securities offered by businesses due to treasury securities being more attractive.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
On January 8, 1835, President Andrew Jackson achieves his goal of entirely paying off the United States' national debt. It was the only time in U.S. history that the national debt stood at zero, and it precipitated one of the worst financial crises in American history.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
- Brunei. 3.2%
- Afghanistan. 7.8%
- Kuwait. 11.5%
- Democratic Republic of Congo. 15.2%
- Eswatini. 15.5%
- Palestine. 16.4%
- Russia. 17.8%
Forget high inflation — we'd see hyperinflation, where prices could increase by millions of percentage points, Snaith says. A scenario like this “grinds an economy to a halt. Prices don't really function the way they should, and because money doesn't hold its value, people don't want to accept it as payment,” he says.
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
Economists measure the severity of a nation's debt based on its debt-to-GDP ratio. The U.S. debt held by the public is nearly at 100%. The Committee for Economic Develop of the Conference Board says a responsible debt-to-GDP ratio for a country the size of the U.S. would be 70%.
Who does China owe money to?
Most of China's local government debt, one of the most regular issuers of domestic debt, is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China's local governments have relied on off balance sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).
The current debt is $31 trillion, and the government collects $3 trillion in tax revenue each year. Allowing for a little interest, and offsetting for inflation, they could do that in a decade (again, imagining that magically the country is able to carry on normally despite zero Federal government spending).
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Offered in a wide range of maturities.
The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world.
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China.
